Secret Squirrel has made a scientific study of the economy,and, being the savante that he is,the economic connaisseur,the shaman that he is,the necromancer of the economy, the Mesmer of things financial, has determined,by a study so scientifically researched he has been able to find a predictable indicator of the economy as it is and a predictor of the economy as it shall be.In the long, and the short of things, Squirrel has determined that the length of skirts,mini skirt to the maxi skirt,as hemlines rise and fall, indicates the economy of the day as it is and is also reflected in the value of stocks on the stock market.Indeed just look at the evidence Squirrel has gathered, and subjected it to the most severe scientific scrutiny.
Indeed Squirrel was not, and has not, been the first.In 1926 professor George Taylor from the University of Pennsylvania came up with the hemline index.
Although funny at first – it has proven itself well against the test of time.The hemline index stands for professor Taylor’s observation that hemlines on women’s dresses rise along with stock prices. Or in other words – as the economy gets better women get shorter and shorter skirts – topping with the miniskirt. When the economy gets worse they tend to wear longer skirts.This was also noted with respect to the stock market,the idea that skirt lengths are a predictor of the stock market direction.The key to success in the stock market is simple: buy low and sell high. The hard part is knowing when the market will be low and when it will be high. To address this challenge, Squirrel has come up with metrics that have nothing to do with alpha beta, the Sharpe ratio or any of the other more traditional analytical measures,indeed not, the metrics have to do with the shortness of skirts as worn by females(kilted Scottsmen don't count, as the Scottish kilt is usually unvarying in
its preceived length,but on the other hand the Scottish economy has been also stagnent for centuries).
In the 1960s there was a stock analyst named Ralph Rotnem who was head of research for an old white shoe brokerage house called Harris, Upham & Company. Mr. Rotnem made the Harris Upham (which later merged into Smith Barney) name slightly famous because of his really famous “hemline theory.” Mr. Rotnem had noticed that as hemlines on women’s skirts moved up (or down, according to the season), so too went the Dow Jones Industrials. According to the theory, if skirts are short, it means the markets are going up. And if skirt are long, it means the markets are heading down.The idea behind this theory is that shorter skirts tend to appear in times when general consumer confidence and excitement is high, meaning the markets are bullish. In contrast, the theory says long skirts are worn more in times of fear and general gloom, indicating that things are bearish.So we see,in skirting issues financial, the skirt length affects both the economy in general, and the stock market is applied directly as a tool, to the skirt.
We see that while rising skirt lengths are a symbol of youth, playfulness and women's liberation,are they also related most directly,to any given nation's prosperity.But it is a proveable and direct fact,that skirt hems rose to miniskirt shortness in the 1920s (flappers) and in the 1960s (mods), peaking with stock prices in the US both times.In the 1960s,stock prices were not exactly high,but there certainly wasn't a depressed market, by any means, and the early part of the period is remembered for its economic affluence and high employment rate. The standard of living improved steadily throughout the decade.
The 1960s are thought of as being “swinging” and liberal, with increased consumer confidence and the blossoming of pop culture that spread across the world.So, rising hemlines are an indication of the mood of the times,and reflected in the
stock market. The shortening of skirts shows a general increase in friskiness, excitement and daring among the population, and long skirts are worn in times of fear and general gloom. The stock market changes direction in step with these
expressions of mood. Floor-length fashions appeared in the 1930s and 1970s (the Maxi), and the price of stocks dropped at the same time.
Let's look at the general scientific evidence correlating the length of skirts with the economy and the stock market.........
The high skirts of the 20s were a complete break from centuries where women's dresses and skirts ended somewhere between the ankle and the floor. Not much room for correlation with this Golden Age or that Panic. Sweet Young Things and wannabes during the Roaring Twenties wore knee-length skirts.
1920's: Highest stock prices in the early part of that century. Very short flapper skirts.
Then there is the experience of the Great Depression of the 1930s.The 1930's: The Great Depression began in 1929, bringing the worst economic conditions in American memory. Women wore very conservative ankle-dusting skirts.Floor length fashions were it in the 1930's, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged from 395 to 195 in 1929, and to 40 in 1931. By 1935 hems dropped to a few inches above the ankle: call it the lower calf area. And in the early 1940s hems were back to the lower edge of the knee.
So far, so good for the theory.
Flip to post-World War 2. Wartime skirt lengths came crashing down with Dior's New Look launched in 1947. For the next dozen years or so, skirt hems hovered near mid-calf. During which time we went through at least two economic downturns of note (1949 and 1958) plus Eisenhower's prosperity years.1940's and '50's: This was a post-War economy. Women were still adjusting to our entrance in the workplace; family life restructured. Employment recovered, but the War took a terrible toll on morale -- and therefore on investment. Skirts were tea-length or just higher, hitting the knee.
As the 1958 recession eased, hems did rise in accord with the recovery. Around 1960 came A-line dresses where hems were just below the knee. As 1960s prosperity continued, hems went up. And up and up until the turn of the decade when there were miniskirts, micro-minis and and all sorts of eye-candy. I'm not sure whether this had anything to do with the economy or if it was launched by the invention of pantyhose in the late 60s.1960's: Boomtime. This was a period of enormous growth. The mini skirt debuted in 1965.
1970's: America suffered with the Oil Crisis in '73 and a market crash the following year. Mini skirts were out; the "mod" decade took a breather. Women wore long, flowy skirts and dresses and welcomed the "gas, grass, or ass" Grateful Dead-following drifter years.
1980's: The '80's were a power decade. Shoulder pads for men and women. Women wore power suits with shorter skirts. After the 1987 Black Monday crash hemlines dropped.
1990's: Skirts stayed longish for the first part of the decade, then hiked to retro microminis as the market gained strength. The second half of the '90's saw growth and lots of bare thigh.Madonna helped bring back the miniskirt in the mid-'90's. You
guessed it: The ticker was up again, this time rushing to 10,000.
2000's: We stuck with short lengths for a few years, but in 2008 the markets plunged the furthest they've gone since the Great Depression. And fashion is having another nostalgic moment -- nostalgic for the long Bohemian styles of the 70's, and reinventing drapey silhouettes.
Correlation is causation. The theory scientifically holds!When times are good, fashions do indeed show skin,lots of skin, hemlines are short, it's mini-skirt time! When fashions change,to short skirts, times are good! If you are speculating on the stock market, you'd best be buying in recessions when the market,hence the stocks, are low, and affordable,and selling based on skirt length,when skirts are short!Smart market watchers take their cues from watching women's legs.
According to the skirt length theory, when skirts get shorter, it's time to buy; when skirts get longer, it's time to sell. The logic behind this indicator dictates that positive markets lead to a happy nation and an atmosphere of fun. Fun times send hemlines rising, making micro minis great for the markets, while conservative floor-length dresses are bad news.
The newest skirt-length survey, conducted on the Internet from Jan. 21 -- Feb. 12 by Market Strategies International, acknowledged history, asking: "They say that hemlines will go up when the economy improves; if that's true, where do you
think skirt lengths will be this spring?" Possible answers were ankle duster (uncertain times ahead), just below the knee (cautious optimism), above the knee (light at the end of the tunnel) and cheesecake (good news ahead).
In all, 82% fell in the below and above the knee categories, with 14% more pessimistic and 4% going for the cheese. While the results are encouraging -- if you put stock in the theory, that is -- consider that in 2004, 51% of those surveyed predicted above-the-knee skirts, compared to 38% today.So keep a sharp eye on hemlines,and when they're short, laissez les bons temps roullez!!!!!!!!
Secret Squirrel,
M.R.L.,(MP,Dunny On The Wold),
Minister For Re-Deranged re-Engineering.
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