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Monday, May 16, 2011

Secret Squirrel Considers The Problems Of The Euro.

Secret Squirrel here ponders Europe's,The EEC's, The European Union's, The European Confederacy's,currency,the Euro(also known as the Ecu), and their individual currencies, et all. In short, here we are taking up,Eurology, also known as taking the piss out, as Euro IS Greek for
piss, and very close to the actual truth it is as well.Firstly we have to ponder and consider what Europe as it presently is, is, in reality.Well, they don't claim to be a country, but they do have a unified Parliament, with an elected but appointed (as of lately),President,(the people don't get to vote, the States do, much as did the American Confederacy),and this parliament can rule, overrule the individual nations that make it up, in short, and in right proper terms, it is not specifically a nation as the United States is, not a Union as it were, but a Confederacy as it was, and as Europe is. Fine, so in structure, it seems they wish everybody to believe that they are separate, and individual,but and not a collected aggregate of states, as in the individual states of America, and so The United States, in the American Union.However they ALL must follow the rules of the Parliament, laws etc etc etc.If there is dissent, with a law,
the problematic law can be avoided in implementation in that location,but only for a time, and then must be conformed with.Militarily they seem to presently be able to control their individual armies, but we notice reductions taking place, particularly in England.They have not gone to what seems not to be, a unified military command,nor uniformed unified military.

Out of the European ,military alliance, this NATO, with some outside Europe member, and out of the EEC,The European Economic Union, was born,actually, the present entity that this so-called so-called United Europe is. It was out of this Unification of sorts, though it may be of all sorts, very much out of sorts, they derived the idea,of some
sorts, of a common currency, The EURO. Indeed the idea was simplistic, a Euro was worth so much of the nation state's own currency.The basis was the fact that the many currencies of the world seemed to be pegged against the dollar, the US dollar, in short their value fluctuated against this fixed dollar,being worth so much against the dollar and compared with and to the dollar.

In practice, and reality, this was the same then for all member states, they could, for a time, continue to use and keep their own currency, but also use this second common currency,of fixed value, their currency being worth so many of their monetary units versus it, versus The Euro, the single Euro.In good time, the idea was to thence eventually abandon the state currency and use only the Euro.

It works in theory.It worked for America, as the individual states all had their own currency before they went to their common dollar.It worked at the time of the collapse of The American Confederacy which used their Confederate Dollar,when the Confederated States were absorbed,by military defeat, in to the United States, The Union as it were.So it works, and did work, in practice. But then there's the reality of Europe,today, where nothing and nobody seems to work.Is the Euro in trouble? Yes, it's value has gone down, fluctuated as it were and is. But why?Remember the value of anybody's dollar or whatever you choose to call it, is purely artificial, it's value is anything anybody in particular wishes to accept it's value as being at any given time.Currency is just that, based on the barter system, a potato is worth so many dollars,based on the potato in question, at time of urchase, it can be worth more or less, depending on acceptance. Now, what is causing the Euro not to be so accepted? Well, there is this thing called the economy,which encompasses all goods and services,governmental expenditures,imports,exports,the GDP(Gross Domestic Product....they seemed to prefer this to GNP which formerly was known as The Gross National Product).

Now of the 23 European Union nations, 16 of those use the Euro,as well as several outside the European Union,but here we'll deal only with those, and their GDP percentile national debt......

Austria 70.40%
Belgium 98.60
Cyprus 61.20
Estonia 7.70 (gee is this'n ever an embarrassment to Europe).
Finland 45.40
France 83.50
Germany 78.80
Greece 144.00
Ireland 94.20
Italy 118.00
Malta 72.60
Netherlands 64.60
Portugal 83.20
Slovakia 41.0
Slovenia 35.50
Spain 63.40

So the total of GDP percentile debt for European Union nations using the Euro, for the Euro, means the Euro European Union has a GDP percentile debt of 72.63% for their agregate GDP.At the formation and attempts to convert to the euro, the euro was run in parallel to the existent currencies,and things went understandably downhill from there. The national debts of the nations using the Euro rose, and as the debt rose, so then did the value of the Euro fall,falling to the extent that today it is considered to be a failed currency.Countries that play by the rules can collapse, and yet countries that run up wild debts,ever increasing such as the US, and Japan can remain stable for a lot longer than what math would suspect,their currencies still stable,you see the issue is political,not financial.You see in Europe, the European Union, there is really no central bank internally to control things,there is no central European Treasury with centralised economic and fiscal policy,so all the nations indulged in wild uncontrolled economic spending,particularly, Greece,Italy,Portugal,Ireland,Spain.It is now no longer a question of will the Euro fail, but rather when will it fail.The poorly led weak European governments lacked the essential backbone to take the decisions needed for essential economic reform,restraint, and in place of deficit reductions, engaged in policies increasing deficits with wild,uncontrolled abandon.The Euro,which was seen as a strong central currency within Europe, taking the place of the US dollar, all currencies revolving around it,the currencies rising and falling against it, was in fact not so.

Instead it was the currencies who cumulatively pulled down the value of the Euro globally.Any new attempts at debt restructuring will devalue the Eurozone currency in the same way as several south American countries have in the past.Should the Euro fail,
then a unified Europe,as an attempt as a Union( as the United States)will also fail, and simply become a reversion to the EEC(the European economic Union),a loose Confederacy,(as The American Confederacy).The monetary union WILL fail as each member states debt increases, and as those who join, similarly suffer from debt increases which are in fact inevitable due to the times........recession has, and will ,kill off the European economic Union.In good economic times, the differences could just
about be accommodated but the tensions became unsustainable when the Great Recession hit.The euro is defective because it seeks to bind together disparate countries which run their economies in very different ways.The attempt at monetary union came at the wrong time, it came at recession,that, and coupled with a lack of central monetary and fiscal policy,there was no ability in Europe to regulate in controlled centralized fashion(as with a single nation),the member states economic activities,and so it
was doomed to failure,failure since all and each of the individual currencies of the member states and resultant debt overprinting of said currencies,influences and brings down the Euro itself, rather than having the currency itself devalued against the Euro internally.

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